Affordability: Trump vs Biden Explained Through Housing Costs, Borrowing Rates, and Energy Costs

Affordability in America comes down to three things: housing costs, borrowing rates, and energy prices. When they stay low and stable, budgets hold. When they rise together, pressure builds fast.

During Trump’s first term (2017–2020), conditions were steady. Inflation stayed low at about 1.5% to 2%. Housing remained more accessible, helped by relatively steady demand and lower prices. Mortgage rates stayed mostly in the 3% to 4% range, keeping monthly payments lower. Gas prices, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) annual averages, stayed in the mid $2 range, and oil generally moved between about $40 and $70 per barrel. Aside from a brief COVID disruption in 2020, costs moved gradually and predictably.

During Biden’s term (2021–2024), costs rose sharply across all three areas.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022. Housing became the biggest pressure point as home prices stayed high while mortgage rates jumped from about 3% to near 7%, sharply increasing monthly payments. Rent also rose roughly 20% or more in many areas, affecting both renters and buyers at the same time. Energy added to the spike. Reopening demand, supply chain issues, and global shocks like the Russia–Ukraine war pushed prices higher. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas averaged about $3.01 per gallon in 2021 and $4.10 in 2022, peaking around $4.33. Oil briefly topped $120 per barrel, raising costs across food, transportation, and goods. Wages rose, but often not fast enough to keep up with the combined increases in housing, borrowing, and energy.

In 2025–2026, inflation has slowed to about 2% to 3%, but prices remain high. Housing is still the main burden, with mortgage rates far above pre-2020 levels keeping monthly payments elevated even as price growth cools. Rent has stabilized but has not meaningfully fallen.

Energy is more stable than in 2022, but still sensitive to global tensions. During Iran-related flare-ups, oil markets can spike briefly, sometimes pushing prices into the upper $70s per barrel. That can lead to short-term gas increases before settling again. Today, based on recent EIA weekly and monthly averages, U.S. gas prices generally sit around $3.10 to $3.60 per gallon nationally, varying by region and season.

Trump’s term reflects low inflation, steady housing conditions, and stable energy prices. Biden’s term reflects a broad and fast increase in costs driven by multiple shocks at once. The current period reflects stabilization, not reversal.

The real divide isn’t political—it’s the cost gap between stable prices, sudden shocks, and a new baseline that households are still trying to catch up to.